Wishful Thinking

Wishful Thinking

It never ceases to amaze Diabetic Investor how some very smart people, people who should really know better just can’t come to grips with reality. That these people continue to drink the kool aid while the markets they play are in complete turmoil. Here are just some of the more recent examples:

There are several people at Abbott (NYSE:ABT) who believe that the new FreeStyle Libre will revitalize their diabetes device unit. That this product is revolutionary and will make Abbott a player again in glucose monitoring. Now keep in mind this product isn’t even available in the US and should it be approved by the FDA it will come to market behind Dexcom (NASDAQ:DXCM) and Medtronic (NYSE:MDT).  Once again when it comes to continuous glucose monitoring Abbott is way late to market this is part of their DNA. Libre is a nice product but won’t do anything to change the dynamics of the BGM market.

Diabetic Investor continues to get a kick out of the Afrezza MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) supporters who have taken kool aid drinking to levels never seen before. Yet the latest kool aid is the best as they seem to believe that when the direct to consumer ad campaign begins this will catapult Afrezza prescriptions into the stratosphere. This better be one hell of an ad campaign given the expectations. Yet as with so many things spouted by these people they ignore reality.

The ad campaign will not overcome poor formulary position, the need for lung function tests and the fact that many physicians just don’t want to put a growth hormone in the lungs. Nor will it change the fact that Afrezza is not for every insulin using patient. Nor will it change the fact that Afrezza is very expensive to make and their partner Sanofi (NYSE:SNY) is in complete turmoil. Other than that Mrs. Lincoln how did you like the play?

Another group of people who just can’t and or don’t want to get it are pharmaceutical reps. This very vocal group of people seem to believe that there are too many reps at every company but their own. The fact is they see the handwriting on the wall and know that it’s just a matter of time before more cuts come. The more experienced among them know that their jobs once critical to the success or failure of a drug have become less important. They know their employers can no longer afford to have huge and very expensive sales forces, the return on investment just isn’t there. They just are hoping they can hold on long enough to find employment elsewhere.

Diabetic Investor won’t go as far and state that pharma reps will become extinct, however we will state the ax is coming again and this is not a profession we’d advise our children to pursue.

The fact is the wacky world is once again undergoing a transformation and the old guard is having a very difficult time dealing with it. They are like a parent of a college age child who just can’t let go. They just can’t believe this child is no longer a child but an adult ready to be on their own. They would like nothing better than to go back to the way things were but this is nothing more than wishful thinking. Lots of that going around lately.