The Calm Before the Storm

A few housekeeping items before the conference begins. As has become our custom we will attempt to post each day provided we have time to write. While we aren’t big on Twitter you can follow us at @diabetic_invstr. Not sure how much we’ll be Tweeting, hope that’s the correct terminology, but you never know.

In the good news department there is still time to order our nearly completed special report. While the report is basically finished and about to go through final edits we thought we might see or learn something that should be included (frankly we doubt it but you never know.). And yes, we do accept credit card orders.

Ok with that out of the way here’s some pre-show news yesterday Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) released data from the many trials their conducting for the oral version of semaglutide and as we anticipated the results were good. While we certainly understand what Novo is doing with all these studies the fact is the oral version does not need to be better than the injectable version. The fact is this drug should be a blockbuster IF it’s as good as any GLP-1 on the market, if it’s better than that’s a bonus.

Novo is also bulking up their pipeline recently signing a deal with Kallyope, Inc. a privately-held New York biotechnology platform developer.

Since this is the wacky world where anything can and usually does happen even when it makes no sense whatsoever how about a truly crazy idea. Yes, Novo has full compliment of injectable therapies and soon could have a blockbuster oral therapy with the oral version of semaglutide. Yet will that be enough to compete head on with Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and offset the revenue about to be lost when Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) launches Amedlog. (We honestly believe that Sanofi would screw up the winning Powerball ticket but again this is Sanofi so we aren’t surprised. But we digress.)

Perhaps Novo should do what we thought Sanofi should have done and buy the diabetes assets from AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN). This makes sense on so many levels it probably won’t happen. But should it happen Novo would have the orals they need while at the same time slowly replace Bydureon with Ozempic®.

As we have stated consistently Lilly has the most comprehensive portfolio of diabetes therapies which we see as giving them more flexibility with payors. They also know that no one else in diabetes can match the depth of their portfolio making the competition play defense. All this would change if Novo bought the diabetes assets from AstraZeneca. And quite frankly these assets would be in far better hands at Novo than Sanofi who would surly do what they always do; screw up.

Try as everyone might to compete in the diabetes drug space this is the domain of Lilly and Novo. These two heavyweights will continue to battle it out for diabetes supremacy. The fact is for everyone else it’s a fight for third place.

Well that’s it for today next stop Orlando.