If it walks like a duck ……

If it walks like a duck ……

There was a moment during the MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) earnings call when we actually felt sorry for the company. A moment that quickly passed as this company has not earned any sympathy. To gauge just how bad things have become the call lasted less than 40 minutes and only 5 analysts even bothered to ask a question. The fact is reality is beginning to set in and analysts are now openly wondering whether the company can survive without Sanofi (NYSE:SNY).

There is no need to rehash the many issues facing MannKind or Afrezza but we did find managements comments very telling.  A team which acknowledges that sales stink and poor insurance coverage is a major reason for this. Yet in a sign that these people have not totally left LaLa land they continue to harp on the fact that awareness for Afrezza is high and that they are exploring additional partnerships.  Although they did acknowledge that any potential partnerships are months away, if ever.

Yet what they seem incapable of acknowledging are a few simple facts:

  1. Increased awareness is NOT leading to greater sales
  2. Sanofi is responsible for getting better formulary coverage – which given they are committed to Toujeo and not Afrezza isn’t going to happen
  3. Based on their history MannKind saying they have possible partnerships is like saying the Chicago Bears have a chance at reaching the Super Bowl this year – sure it’s possible but even a loyal Bears fan wouldn’t count on it

What’s becoming increasingly obvious is even the true believers in MannKind are hoping for some sort of lifeline. No matter what financial shenanigans they come up with that without Sanofi there is little hope that the company can survive. That baring some sort of miracle MannKind and Afrezza will become another Exubera.

The window is closing for MannKind and it’s about time everyone acknowledge the obvious – that when it walks like a duck and squawks like a duck it’s a damn duck only when it comes to MannKind it’s a dead duck.