Amylin Roulette – A new contest
Once again Amylin (NASDAQ:AMLN) shares are jumping on reports that the company has officially put itself up for sale and hired investment bankers. And once again rumors are swirling as to who will buy the company and what price they will pay. Depending on which news report a person reads there are several potential suitors for the company; Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY), AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN), Merck (NYSE:MRK), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Takeda are the most frequently mentioned names. Diabetic Investor would expand this list to include GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) and Sanofi (NYSE:SNY). About the only company not to be mentioned is the one who had their chance and blew it, Lilly (NYSE:LLY).
The good news here is that nearly every name mentioned here has diabetes experience albeit with very different degrees of success. While it is possible that the company could be sold to someone who is not currently in diabetes, Diabetic Investor sees this as a very unlikely scenario. As we have noted several times as good as we believe Bydureon is the drug will not sell itself and putting this drug in the hands of a company not experienced in the diabetes marketplace would be a critical misstep.
Also unmentioned in all these reports is how a sale will impact Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), Amylin’s main competitor in the GLP-1 market. Just as Amylin shares are surging, shares of Novo are moving in the exact opposite direction with equal force. However, Diabetic Investor suspects this downward pressure on shares has more to do with Novo’s many other issues and the eventual sale of Amylin is just adding fuel to a raging fire.
Since this is the wacky world of diabetes where anything can and usually does happen Diabetic Investor thinks it’s time for another contest. Any registered Diabetic Investor subscriber can enter by submitting an email to email@example.com that tells us who will buy Amylin and what the price will be. We also encourage anyone who is not a registered user of Diabetic Investor, and we know you’re out there, to enter as well. The correct entry submitted by a registered user will win a special prize, while any entry submitted by a non-registered user who is violating the Diabetic Investor copyright will receive a very special prize as you will be hearing from our lawyers.
Given the many companies reporting earnings this week that could be involved in the Amylin sale, we think it’s only fair that all entries be submitted no later than tomorrow (Tuesday April 24th, 2012) by midnight central standard time. And in the interest of full disclosure and to get the ball rolling Diabetic Investor will peg the sales price at $35 per share with the winning bidder being AstraZeneca. Frankly we’re more confident on the sale price then AstraZeneca and we do believe there is a remote chance that the eventual buyer will a company not mentioned anywhere so far, perhaps someone like Johnson and Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) who as one Diabetic Investor registered user noted has the money and credit rating to make a strong bid for the company.
The contest is now officially accepting entries.