A Big Day

A Big Day

This Thursday isn’t just the opening game between our beloved Super Bowl bound Chicago Bears and their rivals from the north the Green Bay Packers, it’s also the first time Livongo will report earnings. While we think the Bears Packers game is the more important of these two events, we know there are many in our wacky world who want a more detailed glimpse into how Livongo is performing.

That being said we think the Livongo earnings call will be one huge non-event as investors will likely give them a pass no matter what they report. The Livongo story in that respect isn’t that much different than how we feel here in Chicago about our beloved Bears. Our defense looks to be true Monsters of the Midway while the offense should be much improved now that we have kicker who splits the uprights instead of hitting them. Although the schedule does look menacing it’s Miami or bust for the Bears this year. Simply put anticipation is sky high.

The same can said for Livongo a company that has a panache for doing deals and introducing new programs beyond diabetes management. Already several analysts are jumping on the Livongo bandwagon even after the recent drop off after a very successful IPO. These analysts seem to think that the company has some sort of magic potion and will be the first digital health company to actually make money, something that so far anyway Livongo has failed to do.

This is where the Bears and Livongo split as should the Bears falter Thursday night Chicago will switch from giddy anticipation to full blown panic mode. The fact is no matter what Livongo reports they cannot fail as with Livongo it won’t be about what they have done but where they are going. These giddy analysts will gloss over Livongo’s history of producing nothing but loses preferring instead to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Unlike Bears head coach Matt Nagy who will be grilled relentlessly should the Bears falter, expect nothing but lay-up questions for the Livongo team.

This is why last week we noted that Livongo looks like a classic pump and dump. Rather than be looked at as medical device company it’s seen as tech company that happens to be in chronic disease management and therefore huge losses are to be expected as they build their patient base. The problem that we see, and the analysts seem to ignore is that just as the Bears face a tough schedule Livongo also has competition, competitors who will drive costs lower making it even more difficult for Livongo to make money.

Just how long will Livongo be given a pass? Just how long will this love fest with analysts go on? That’s anyone’s guess but the fact is at some point all the anticipation all the rah rah has to at some point produce results. That day has arrived for our beloved Bears who many expect to play in Miami on February 2nd, 2020. That day will eventually come for Livongo we just don’t know when it will be.